Virtual currencies have been
around since almost 15 years now and have only recently started getting a lot
of attention from regulators and business analysts alike. Are they legitimate?
Are they a profitable business model? One
of the larger firms to join the fray recently is Amazon, which launched its own
virtual currency, Amazon Coins, last month. To most people, this seems like yet
another virtual wallet with limited scalability. Many analysts have already
drawn parallels between Amazon Coins and Facebook’s failed virtual currency,
Facebook Credits. While in its current form, Amazon Coins does seem to be very
similar to Facebook Credits, assuming that it will stay that way is gravely
underestimating Amazon and its need to increase margins. Knowing Amazon history
of piloting initiatives before launching them all out, Amazon Coins just may be
Amazon’s first step towards setting up its own payments network. And if that
does happen, it may seriously rock the boat for Paypal, Visa and Mastercard.
Amazon Coins has the potential to
be much more than a virtual wallet as it complements Amazon’s strengths and its
strategy. Amazon is in the business of retail where each transaction involves a
‘payments’ cost and, given its thin margins, bringing down those costs is
critical for Amazon. Currently, almost 1% of Amazon’s total revenues go towards
paying fees to card issuers and networks. That is at least $0.75 Billion in
costs for Amazon in 2013. Looking at how eBay has built Paypal into a $5.1
Billion business that grew by 26% last year alone, it is evident that there are
benefits to both the revenue and the cost side of the business if Amazon
creates an alternate payment system.
To understand how Amazon would do
this, you need to first understand what Amazon is creating. In its current
form, Amazon Coins is nothing but a virtual wallet, where the currency is only
limited by the number of merchants that accept it. Although Coins can initially
be used only for media purchases on Kindle, I believe that Amazon will
gradually get other online and offline merchants to start accepting Coins as a
mode of payment. Amazon is already offering deals at brick and mortar
establishments through AmazonLocal and it won’t be too tough for it to get
these merchants and LivingSocial’s merchant partners to accept Coins as a mode
of payment.
This would be an almost
inevitable extension of Coins as it seamlessly fits into Amazon’s focus on
reducing costs, its increasing involvement with offline retailers through
AmazonLocal and its ability to leverage the merchant network of LivingSocial.
Alternately, Amazon could even
tie up with a network like American Express, which probably has a huge overlap
with the Prime subscriber base, to scale up the acceptance of Coins across the
Amex merchant network. If Amazon manages to get even 10% of its revenue in 2014
through purchases using Amazon Coins on Amazon.com alone, it is projected to
save over $100 Million in payments costs.
This potential threat should
raise serious concerns for Paypal, card issuers and networks like Visa and
Mastercard, given how it may directly impact their businesses. Amazon already
accounts for almost 26% of all US eCommerce sales and if it starts processing
these sales directly, Visa and Mastercard have a lot to lose as transactions
shift from offline to online over the coming years. So does Paypal if Amazon
gets most merchants to start accepting Coins as a mode of payment. And if I
were any of these firms, I would start planning accordingly.